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Latest from the Lab

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2026-09-02

One lost season is a discount. Two is a diagnosis.

Every injury-bounce-back column this week hands you one list. I ran 567 injury-shortened seasons forward and the list splits clean in half. Tight ends with one lost year and healthy years behind them come back at 88 percent of a season. Our own board had them at 73, so we were the ones who had this wrong, and it is 2.6 games of Sam LaPorta nobody was counting.

2026-08-31

The new guy takes six targets. He does not take your points.

Every sell list this month moves the incumbent receiver because his team spent a pick on a pass catcher. I ran 583 receiver seasons against the next one, holding target share fixed. The rookie really does take the work, six and a half targets, and that interval excludes zero. The scoring never follows. Sixty percent of the gap the sell lists are pricing was already on the board the season before the pick was spent.

2026-08-26

'Injury-prone' is a quarterback word. You keep spending it on running backs.

Every fade list this month points the injury-prone label at running backs. I ran 451 injury-shortened seasons forward a year and put a confidence interval on all four positions. Running back is the only one where a repeat injury costs a player no measurable availability at all. Quarterback costs the most, and nobody says it out loud.